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Machine LearningPhased rollout

Churn Prediction & Forecasting

Two models: one predicts at-risk customers, the other recommends the next action to take.

retention graphs on a laptop screen
  • SaaS / Accounting softwareIndustry
  • Online accounting platformClient
  • Machine LearningCategory
  • Phased rolloutTime to impact
CH.01 · The challenge

The challenge

today
  1. By the time churn shows up in the numbers, it is usually too late to act.
  2. The team needed an early signal for who is at risk, and just as importantly, what to actually do about each account.
Our answer

Two models: one predicts at-risk customers, the other recommends the next action to take.

A predictive system built on two models. One scores churn risk and forecasts key metrics to inform decisions; the other recommends the next action to take on each at-risk account. So the team knows not just who is leaving, but what to do about it.

CH.02 · What we built

What we built

Two models: one predicts at-risk customers, the other recommends the next action to take.
  1. 01One model scores churn risk and forecasts the metrics that drive decisions.
  2. 02A second model recommends the next action to take on each account.
  3. 03At-risk accounts surface early, each with a reason.
  4. 04The team sees who is leaving and what to do about it.
CH.03 · How it works

How it works

CH.04 · What it can do

What it can do

  • Decision model

    Scores churn risk and forecasts metrics to inform decisions.

  • Action model

    Recommends the next action for each at-risk account.

  • Risk scoring

    Ranks customers by likelihood to churn.

  • At-risk alerts

    Flags accounts that need attention now.

CH.05 · Who stays in the loop

Who stays in the loop

The call the system deliberately does not take, and what the person is given to take it with.

Runs on its own

A predictive system built on two models

Who

The retention or customer-success owner

Decideswhether to act on an account, and whether the recommended action is the right one

Seesthe risk score, the reason it moved, and the next action the second model proposed

CH.06 · The payoff

The payoff

What is different once it is running. No invented numbers: these are the changes the work was built to make.

You see who is about to leave and what to do about it, while there is still time to act.
  • Not just who is leaving, but what to do about it.

  • At-risk accounts flagged early, with a reason.

  • Retention effort goes where it actually matters.

CH.07 · Built with

Built with

The layers this runs on, from what comes in to what it plugs into.

  1. Model layer
    • ML models
    • Forecasting
  2. Runs on
    • Agentic workflow
CH.08 · Common questions

Common questions

The same answers as above, written out.

A predictive system built on two models. One scores churn risk and forecasts key metrics to inform decisions; the other recommends the next action to take on each at-risk account. So the team knows not just who is leaving, but what to do about it.

By the time churn shows up in the numbers, it is usually too late to act. The team needed an early signal for who is at risk, and just as importantly, what to actually do about each account.

Feed in account and usage signals. One model scores risk and forecasts; another picks the next action. At-risk accounts surface with a recommended action.

The retention or customer-success owner decides whether to act on an account, and whether the recommended action is the right one. They see the risk score, the reason it moved, and the next action the second model proposed.

Model layer: ML models, Forecasting. Runs on: Agentic workflow.

Not just who is leaving, but what to do about it. At-risk accounts flagged early, with a reason. Retention effort goes where it actually matters.

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We are a small team of senior specialists. We pick the right model and the right layer, and we build the least machinery that does the job. You get a call with an engineer, not a sales deck.